In this guide
Key takeaway: Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market where participants trade YES/NO shares on real-world events using USDC on the Polygon blockchain. Smart contracts execute all settlements without intermediaries.
How does Polymarket work? Fundamentally, Polymarket operates as a prediction exchange: rather than wagering against a sportsbook's built-in edge, you exchange positions with fellow traders who hold opposing views. Market prices continuously shift to reflect participants' aggregate probability assessments — changing instantly as fresh information emerges.
The basics: prediction markets
In a prediction market, you acquire shares representing different outcomes. Each share is worth $1 upon YES resolution, or $0 upon NO resolution. Purchasing a YES share at 40 cents ($0.40) signals your belief that the event has a 40% likelihood. Success means your capital doubles; failure means forfeiting your investment.
Polymarket operates differently from conventional sportsbooks in that it charges no house edge (the "vig"). Participant supply and demand alone determine the price.
How Polymarket uses blockchain
Polymarket operates via the Polygon blockchain (a layer-2 solution built atop Ethereum). This architecture delivers:
- Complete on-chain transparency and auditability of every transaction
- Automated execution of deposits, settlements, and trading via smart contracts
- Elimination of Polymarket staff ability to seize assets or alter results
- Near-instantaneous settlement rather than multi-day clearing periods
USDC: the currency of Polymarket
Polymarket exclusively accepts USDC (USD Coin), a stablecoin maintaining a fixed 1:1 ratio with the US dollar. Your trading balance remains insulated from cryptocurrency price swings — one USDC perpetually equals one dollar.
How markets resolve
Upon an event's conclusion, Polymarket employs the UMA Oracle (Universal Market Access) to finalise outcomes. An appointed "proposer" reports the result; a 2-hour challenge period follows; if no objection surfaces, settlement becomes binding. Contested resolutions escalate to UMA token holders for decentralised adjudication.
Getting started on Polymarket
- Create an account — register via email and pass identity verification
- Deposit USDC — fund via MoonPay, conventional bank transfer, or existing cryptocurrency holdings
- Browse markets — explore offerings spanning elections, sports markets, digital assets, entertainment and beyond
- Buy shares — select YES or NO and specify your amount
- Track and exit — liquidate your holdings whenever you choose before the event concludes
PolyGram streamlines this workflow through an intuitive mobile platform and passwordless email authentication. Start trading on PolyGram →
Why Polymarket prices are accurate
Prediction exchanges have repeatedly surpassed traditional surveys and specialist opinions in forecasting accuracy. Throughout the 2024 US election season, Polymarket's probability readings demonstrated superior precision compared to leading polling organisations. The mechanism is straightforward: financial incentives compel participants toward genuine, unbiased predictions.