In this guide
Key takeaway: Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market where traders buy YES/NO shares on real-world events using USDC on the Polygon blockchain. Smart contracts handle all settlements automatically.
How does Polymarket work? Fundamentally, Polymarket operates as a prediction marketplace: rather than wagering against a bookmaker's edge, you trade directly with other participants who hold opposing views on your forecast. The market price continuously reflects what the broader community believes is the true probability — shifting instantly as fresh information emerges.
The basics: prediction markets
In a prediction market, you acquire shares representing a specific outcome. Each share is redeemable for $1 upon a YES resolution, or worthless upon a NO resolution. When you purchase a YES share for 40 cents ($0.40), you're essentially betting the event has a 40% likelihood of occurring. Success means your investment doubles; failure means forfeiting your capital.
Polymarket differs from conventional bookmakers by eliminating the spread (the "vig"). Prices emerge purely from the interplay of buyer and seller activity.
How Polymarket uses blockchain
Polymarket operates atop the Polygon blockchain (a layer-2 scaling solution extending Ethereum). This architecture delivers:
- Complete transparency and on-chain auditability of every transaction
- Automated execution of deposits, trading, and settlement via smart contracts
- Elimination of centralised control — Polymarket operators cannot seize assets or alter results
- Near-instantaneous resolution instead of multi-day clearing cycles
USDC: the currency of Polymarket
Polymarket exclusively utilises USDC (USD Coin), a stablecoin maintaining a 1:1 correspondence with the US dollar. Your trading balance remains insulated from cryptocurrency price swings — one USDC perpetually equals one dollar.
How markets resolve
Once an event's outcome becomes established, Polymarket leverages the UMA Oracle (Universal Market Access) to finalise markets. An appointed "proposer" reports the result; a 2-hour challenge period allows objections; if no dispute emerges, settlement is locked in. Contested resolutions escalate to UMA token holders for decentralised adjudication.
Getting started on Polymarket
- Create an account — register via email and complete identity verification requirements
- Deposit USDC — fund your account through MoonPay, bank transfer, or an existing digital wallet
- Browse markets — explore offerings across politics, sports, crypto, entertainment and beyond
- Buy shares — select YES or NO and specify your wager amount
- Track and exit — liquidate your holdings whenever you choose before the market settles
PolyGram streamlines this workflow through a mobile-optimised platform and streamlined email authentication. Start trading on PolyGram →
Why Polymarket prices are accurate
Prediction markets have repeatedly demonstrated superior forecasting performance versus traditional surveys and specialist commentary. Throughout 2024's electoral season, Polymarket's probability assessments surpassed accuracy levels achieved by leading polling organisations. The mechanism is straightforward: when participants risk their own capital, they're motivated to form unbiased judgements.