In this guide
Prediction markets focused on science and technology draw in exceptionally sophisticated participants — academic researchers, engineering professionals, and science communicators capable of interpreting technical breakthroughs with considerably greater speed than typical market traders. These venues consistently reward specialised knowledge and technical acumen.
Active Science & Technology Prediction Markets (2026)
Space Exploration
- SpaceX Starship reaches orbit with payload: ~72-78%
- Artemis Moon landing in 2026: ~35-42%
- SpaceX Mars mission launch before 2030: ~55-62%
- Commercial space station operational in 2026: ~28-34%
Artificial Intelligence
- AGI claimed by major lab before 2028: ~22-28%
- AI system passes ARC-AGI benchmark (100%): ~38-44%
- EU AI Act High-Risk classification of LLMs: ~62-68%
Biotechnology & Medicine
- CRISPR gene therapy approved for new indication in US: ~65-72%
- GLP-1 drug market exceeds $150B annual revenue: ~55-62%
- Alzheimer's treatment showing 50%+ disease modification: ~28-34%
Clean Energy
- Nuclear fusion net energy gain sustained for 60+ seconds: ~35-42%
- Global solar capacity exceeds 5 TW: ~65-70%
- Solid-state battery in commercial EV by major automaker: ~38-44%
Edge Sources in Science/Tech Markets
- Preprint repositories (arXiv, bioRxiv): emerging research findings made public ahead of formal peer-review processes
- Patent applications: technological breakthroughs frequently leave a paper trail through patent submissions
- Regulatory approval schedules: FDA and EMA timelines governing biotech product authorisation
- Technical symposium presentations: public disclosures from SpaceX, NASA, and major technology firms regarding future plans
FAQ
- How do science prediction markets resolve?
- These markets depend on independently verifiable information: corporate announcements, peer-reviewed scientific journals, official government regulatory determinations, or established news organisations (AP, Reuters).
- Are there niche science markets not listed on PolyGram?
- PolyGram focuses on widely-followed science markets. Manifold Markets (which uses play money) offers a broader selection of user-generated markets for more specialised topics.
- Do researchers trade prediction markets about their own field?
- Absolutely — and such participants typically possess the strongest informational advantage. The collective perspective of the research community (expressed through conference discussions) frequently moves market valuations ahead of broader adoption by several weeks.