In this guide
Successful prediction market traders don't operate on impulse — they adhere to a disciplined weekly schedule that maximises research productivity. This guide outlines a battle-tested 5-hour weekly structure.
Monday: Calendar & Market Scanning (1 hour)
- Survey the week ahead for major catalysts: central bank announcements, political contests, sporting fixtures, economic indicators
- Browse PolyGram for recently launched markets from the past seven days
- Shortlist 3-5 markets where you might possess an informational advantage this week
- Assess current holdings — has fresh intelligence emerged that warrants position adjustments?
Tuesday-Thursday: Deep Research (2 hours)
- Conduct in-depth analysis of each shortlisted market
- Establish your own probability assessment without consulting market odds first
- Weigh your assessment against prevailing market prices — commit only when the discrepancy justifies entry
- Determine Kelly criterion stake size for each prospective trade
Friday: Execution & Review (1 hour)
- Place this week's trades when liquidity is strongest
- Examine markets settling this week — document final results against your forecasts
- Refresh your tracking log with fresh data
Weekend: Performance Analysis (1 hour)
- Tally weekly returns and cumulative Brier score
- Pinpoint recurring patterns or biases in your recent forecasting
- Digest one pertinent academic paper or expert commentary relevant to your specialisation
FAQ
- Can I be profitable trading prediction markets part-time?
- Absolutely — many winning traders invest fewer than 10 hours weekly. The calibre of your analysis outweighs the sheer volume of hours invested.
- What tools do I need for this routine?
- PolyGram platform for placing trades, a basic spreadsheet for record-keeping, and access to your preferred information sources. Sophisticated software is unnecessary.