In this guide
What Is a Prediction Market?
Prediction markets are financial venues where traders exchange contracts tied to the outcome of forthcoming events. The contract's market price embodies the collective assessment of how likely that event is to materialise. PolyGram operates as a UK-accessible prediction market platform offering exposure to occurrences across the globe.
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
At their core, prediction market contracts pose a straightforward question: will Event X occur by Date Y? Take this scenario: "Will the Conservative Party win the next UK general election?" Two contract types are on offer:
- YES: Should the Conservatives prevail, this contract settles at $1.00
- NO: Should the Conservatives fail to win, this contract settles at $1.00
When the YES contract trades at $0.65, the market is pricing in a 65% chance of a Conservative victory. You may purchase YES if you believe the odds favour them, or NO if you reckon they're unlikely to succeed. Correct predictions yield gains; incorrect ones mean losing your capital.
Prediction Markets vs Traditional Betting
- No overround: Traditional bookies embed a built-in edge — prediction markets eliminate this. YES and NO prices together equal roughly $1.00
- You can exit early: Close out your position at any time before the event concludes
- Full visibility: Market prices and the complete order book remain openly accessible
- Collective intelligence: Prices synthesise input from many thousands of market participants — typically surpassing traditional polling in accuracy
Types of Prediction Markets
Political Markets
Electoral contests, public sentiment measures, legislative outcomes, ministerial transitions. These dominate activity and liquidity on major platforms such as Polymarket.
Sports Markets
Game results, championship victors, athlete performance metrics, final standings.
Crypto Markets
Digital asset valuations, blockchain improvements, investment product approvals, government action.
World Event Markets
Macroeconomic data, environmental crises, technological breakthroughs, cultural ceremonies.
Are Prediction Markets Legal in the UK?
The UK regulatory landscape for prediction markets occupies uncertain territory. The Gambling Commission has neither formally authorised them nor formally prohibited them. Operators such as PolyGram function via blockchain-based settlement mechanisms, distinguishing them from conventional gaming offerings.
How Accurate Are Prediction Markets?
Empirical evidence repeatedly demonstrates that prediction markets deliver superior forecasting compared to professional analysts and survey-based models. Polymarket's track record includes accurate calls on the 2024 US presidential race, numerous contests across the EU, and significant cryptocurrency developments—often weeks or months in advance.