In this guide
What Is a Prediction Market?
Prediction markets are trading venues where participants exchange contracts tied to the outcome of forthcoming events. The cost of any given contract mirrors the collective view of market participants regarding the likelihood of that event taking place. PolyGram operates as a UK-based prediction market offering exposure to events across the globe.
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
Each contract in a prediction market poses a straightforward question: will Event X occur before Date Y? Take this example: "Will the Conservative Party win the next UK general election?" Two contract types exist for this scenario:
- YES: Should the Conservatives prevail, this contract settles at $1.00
- NO: Should the Conservatives fail to win, this contract settles at $1.00
When YES trades at $0.65, participants are pricing in a 65% chance of a Conservative victory. You may purchase YES if you believe the odds are favourable, or NO if you reckon they're not. Correct predictions yield gains; incorrect ones result in losses on your investment.
Prediction Markets vs Traditional Betting
- No overround: Traditional bookies incorporate a built-in edge — prediction markets eliminate this. YES and NO prices combine to approximately $1.00
- You can sell before resolution: Close out your position at any moment prior to the event concluding
- Transparent: Market participants can view all pricing and order book activity openly
- Crowd wisdom: Thousands of active traders feed information into prices — frequently surpassing the accuracy of conventional surveys
Types of Prediction Markets
Political Markets
Contests, voter approval, legislative decisions, ministerial appointments. These dominate trading activity and liquidity on major platforms such as Polymarket.
Sports Markets
Game results, championship victors, athlete performance metrics, divisional standings.
Crypto Markets
Digital asset valuations, blockchain improvements, fund launches, compliance developments.
World Event Markets
Inflation figures, weather emergencies, technological breakthroughs, award ceremonies.
Are Prediction Markets Legal in the UK?
The regulatory status of prediction markets across the United Kingdom occupies uncertain terrain. The Gambling Commission has neither formally authorised nor prohibited them. Services such as PolyGram function via distributed ledger settlement mechanisms, distinguishing them from conventional gaming operations.
How Accurate Are Prediction Markets?
Empirical studies demonstrate that prediction markets consistently beat specialist analysts and statistical polling models. Polymarket's forecasts proved correct for the 2024 American presidential race, numerous contests across the continent, and significant blockchain developments—often weeks or months in advance.