When will GPT-5.6 be released?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

OpenAI has not officially confirmed a release date for GPT-5.6, yet internal backend logs and chief scientist Jakub Pachocki’s recent internal message describe the model as a “meaningful improvement” over GPT-5.5, with a late-June launch now widely anticipated[1][2]. Historical release patterns within the GPT-5 series show a compressed cadence: GPT-5.4 arrived on 5 March 2026, GPT-5.5 on 23 April 2026, and the six-week flagship rhythm strongly points to GPT-5.6 emerging before the settlement window closes on 28 June 2026[2][3]. Polymarket traders have priced an 83–89% probability for a launch between 22 and 28 June, backed by over $1 million in contract volume, making this the strongest pre-launch consensus signal outside official channels[1][2].

Traders should monitor three key catalysts: an official OpenAI system card (expected to accompany launch as with GPT-5.5), version bumps in Codex backend logs where the model name first surfaced, and any live-stream announcements OpenAI has scheduled for this week[1][5]. The Information reported on 10 June that Pachocki confirmed late-stage preparation, while Android Authority noted the “kindle-alpha” release candidate is already visible in routing logs[1][2]. No official API string, benchmarks, or pricing exist as of mid-June, so the next concrete signal will likely be a public version update or system card announcement[1][4]. Until OpenAI publishes formal details, the market remains driven by internal telemetry and prediction-market consensus rather than confirmed facts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.