Bitcoin price on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price at noon Eastern Time on 14 August 2026, using the 1-minute candle from Binance's BTC/USDT pair. The settlement window extends to mid-August 2026, giving traders roughly 20 months to assess price movements across a volatile asset class. If the spot price lands between two brackets, the higher range applies at resolution.

Bitcoin's historical volatility makes precise price prediction at distant dates inherently uncertain. Over the past five years, intraday noon closures have varied substantially depending on macroeconomic conditions, regulatory announcements, and institutional positioning. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific price band or insufficient liquidity in this particular contract. Comparable long-dated Bitcoin contracts have typically seen probability shifts tied to Federal Reserve policy signals, spot exchange-traded fund approvals, and geopolitical events affecting risk appetite rather than technical price action alone.

Key catalysts between now and August 2026 include potential US regulatory clarity on cryptocurrency frameworks, developments in the Bitcoin halving cycle (next scheduled for April 2024), and broader equity market sentiment. Major central bank decisions and inflation data will likely influence Bitcoin's correlation with traditional assets. Traders should monitor announcements from the Securities and Exchange Commission regarding spot Bitcoin products, as these have historically driven substantial price movements. Binance's operational status and any changes to its trading infrastructure could also affect data availability at the resolution timestamp.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Bitcoin price on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.