Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic abruptly disabled access to Claude Fable 5 and its unrestricted counterpart, Claude Mythos 5, on 12 June 2026, just three days after public launch, following a mandatory US government export-control directive tied to national-security concerns and a reported jailbreak vulnerability[1][5]. The directive requires suspension of access for all foreign nationals, including those within the US, forcing Anthropic to revoke access globally for all customers rather than segment by nationality[2][4].

Historical precedents suggest such export blocks are often temporary, contingent on remediation of the cited safety flaw and subsequent regulatory review[3]. White House AI adviser David Sacks has described the block as potentially reversible if Anthropic patches the jailbreak and the safety issue is resolved, with no official indication that this marks a permanent policy shift[1][3]. Crucially, there is no confirmed technical vulnerability beyond the reported jailbreak, and no timeline for restoration has been announced[1].

Traders should monitor two key catalysts: first, any official announcement from Anthropic confirming a patch for the cited jailbreak, which is the fastest path to lifting the directive[3]; second, clarification on whether the free-access window for Pro, Max, Team, and Enterprise subscribers, originally ending 22 June, is extended if the model returns post-date[3]. Reuters reported ongoing discussions between Anthropic and authorities, with the company asserting technical misunderstandings may be involved[1]. The absence of a confirmed return date as of 17 June underscores the uncertainty, though the suspension remains distinct from a permanent ban[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.