July Inflation US - Monthly

Platform comparison

Market context

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for July 2026 on 12 August 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. This market resolves on the one-month percentage change in the CPI-U, the broadest measure of consumer inflation tracked by the federal government. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to a YES resolution, suggesting traders expect a specific outcome or range that excludes whatever threshold defines a YES condition.

Monthly CPI changes have historically ranged between −0.7% and +1.4% in the post-2020 period, with most readings clustering between 0.0% and 0.5%. The Federal Reserve's inflation-targeting framework and labour market dynamics shape these movements. Comparable July readings from recent years—July 2023 showed +0.2%, July 2024 showed +0.3%—provide benchmarks for seasonal patterns and underlying price pressures. The zero probability assigned here suggests the market has already priced in a narrow expected range or that the YES threshold sits outside historical norms.

Traders should monitor June 2026 CPI data (released mid-July) for momentum signals, as month-to-month changes often correlate. Energy prices, wage growth data, and any significant supply-chain disruptions reported between now and August will influence the final reading. The Federal Reserve's policy stance heading into summer will also shape inflation expectations. The settlement window closes at 03:59 UTC on 12 August, giving traders only hours after the official BLS release to adjust positions based on the actual figure.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for July Inflation US - Monthly. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.