Bitcoin Up or Down on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market tracks whether Bitcoin's price at noon ET on 13 August 2026 will be higher or lower than its price at the same time on 12 August 2026, based on Binance spot trading data. The 76% probability assigned to an upward move reflects trader expectations of a daily gain across that 24-hour window.

One-day directional bets on Bitcoin have historically shown weak predictive power beyond macro momentum and intraday volatility patterns. August typically sees lower trading volumes in crypto markets as institutional participants reduce summer exposure, which can amplify price swings from smaller order flow. The 24-hour window removes overnight gaps as a factor, isolating the behaviour between two fixed noon timestamps. Comparable single-day Bitcoin moves in low-liquidity periods have ranged between ±2–4%, though the specific noon-to-noon framing narrows the observation window and reduces the likelihood of extreme moves.

Traders should monitor macroeconomic data releases scheduled for 12–13 August, particularly any US inflation or employment figures that could shift risk appetite across crypto markets. Federal Reserve communications and movements in traditional equity futures will likely drive Bitcoin's direction more than crypto-specific news. Binance's operational status and any unscheduled maintenance windows could affect price discovery at the exact settlement timestamps, though such disruptions are rare. The settlement occurs at 16:00 ET on 13 August, providing a four-hour buffer after the final candle closes for data verification.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Bitcoin Up or Down on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.