Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) passed the House with bipartisan support on 17 July 2025 but remains stalled in the Senate Banking Committee, where a competing discussion draft, the Responsible Financial Innovation Act, has emerged [5][6]. This legislative bottleneck mirrors the trajectory of the GENIUS Act, which also faced Senate friction before eventual passage, suggesting that 38% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty over whether the CLARITY Act can overcome competing priorities in a crowded 2026 legislative calendar [6].

Key catalysts include the Senate Banking Committee’s decision to advance H.R.3633 to the full Senate floor and any subsequent vote by the Senate before the 31 December 2026 signing deadline [6]. Traders should monitor statements from Senate Banking Committee Chair and House Financial Services Committee members regarding whether the CLARITY Act will be prioritised over the RFIA draft, as well as any scheduled hearings on the bill in the coming months [6]. A recent report from Morgan Lewis confirms that bipartisan House committee votes advanced the Act in June 2025, but the Senate path remains the critical dependency [4].

Historical precedent shows that crypto market structure bills often face extended Senate deliberation; the 2023 California DFAL took over a year from draft to enactment, while federal efforts like the earlier FIT21 bill required multiple committee revisions before passage [2][4]. Given the current Senate composition and the presence of an alternative draft, the 38% probability aligns with the difficulty of securing final approval within the remaining timeframe.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.