Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
50% | 50% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
50% | 50% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| A | 50% |
| B | 50% |
| C | 50% |
| D | 50% |
| E | 50% |
| Other | 50% |
| Team Vitality | 25% |
| Team Spirit | 24% |
| Team Falcons | 16% |
| FURIA | 9% |
| Natus Vincere | 8% |
| MOUZ | 8% |
| The MongolZ | 2% |
| Aurora Gaming | 2% |
| FUT Esports | 2% |
| G2 Esports | 2% |
| 9z Globant | 2% |
| BB Team | 2% |
| FaZe Clan | 2% |
| PVISION | 2% |
| Lynn Vision Gaming | 1% |
| Legacy | 1% |
| Astralis | 1% |
| B8 | 1% |
| paiN Gaming | 1% |
| 3DMAX | 1% |
| Luminosity | 1% |
| 100 Thieves | 1% |
| BIG | 1% |
| K27 Esports | 1% |
| JiJieHao | 1% |
| M80 | 0% |
| TYLOO | 0% |
| GamerLegion | 0% |
| magic | 0% |
| NIP.eStar | 0% |
| Wildcard | 0% |
| MIBR.LOS | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 50% chance of ewc 2026 cs2: winner. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Counter-Strike 2 tournament at the 2026 Esports World Cup (EWC 2026), currently scheduled for August 12 – August 23, 2026. …
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for EWC 2026 CS2: Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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