How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

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Market context

The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged throughout 2026, holding the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% after three cuts in late 2025. Despite a crowd-implied 80% probability that the Fed will deliver at least one 25-basis-point cut in 2026, the latest dot plot suggests only a single cut is likely, potentially occurring late in the year. J.P. Morgan Global Research now forecasts the Fed remaining on hold for the rest of 2026, with the next move being a 25-bp hike in September 2027, while Goldman Sachs has pushed its cut forecast to mid-2027. The median Fed participant previously expected one cut this year but is likely to shift toward zero, reflecting a more prudent stance amid robust labour markets and accelerating inflation.

Traders should monitor the upcoming FOMC meetings, particularly the July 29 session where futures markets currently price a 21.4% chance of a 25-bp hike and only 1.4% for a cut. New chair Kevin Warsh’s dovish suggestions to abolish forward guidance face resistance from policymakers, and his stance clashes with rising inflation pressures. The CME FedWatch tool indicates nearly 100% likelihood of no change after the March meeting, reinforcing the hold narrative. Investors must watch inflation data, oil prices, and Middle East developments, as any surprise in these areas could shift the median participant’s outlook from one cut to none, making the current 80% probability increasingly fragile.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.