Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
60% | 40% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
60% | 40% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5) | 60% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5) | 57% |
| Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs 3DMAX (+1.5) | 55% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5) | 52% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 48% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 48% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 44% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 38% |
| Map 1 Winner | 32% |
| Map 2 Winner | 24% |
| Match Winner | 19% |
Market context
3DMAX face MOUZ in a best-of-three quarter-final at the BLAST Bounty Playoffs, and the market’s 32% crowd-implied probability for 3DMAX reflects a clear underdog view. The pair have already played several recent series, and MOUZ have taken the last two recorded best-of-threes against 3DMAX, both by 2-0 scorelines, including wins in ESL Pro League Season 22 and earlier in the year[4][10]. That head-to-head run matters because it suggests MOUZ have repeatedly been able to handle 3DMAX’s map pool and mid-round adjustments, while 3DMAX have yet to convert a series against them[1][4][10].
The current read on 3DMAX is more nuanced than a simple mismatch. One recent BLAST preview noted they came into the quarter-final on the back of consecutive wins, including a 2-1 over m80’s replacement opponents and a 2-0 over FUT, with Kursy carrying strong individual form over the previous three months[3]. MOUZ, by contrast, were described as the clearer favourite, but they also had one earlier group-stage loss to Falcons, which is relevant because their level has not been flawless even if the baseline remains higher[3][6].
For traders, the main catalysts are late team-news and whether the scheduled start holds, because a postponement beyond seven days or a non-played match would push the market to 50-50 under the rules. The listed start is 30 July at 16:00 local time in the cited match listing, so any official schedule shift, substitution news, or player availability update before lock could move the price quickly[2][5]. MOUZ’s recent form suggests stability, but any last-minute issue around roster continuity would matter more here than in an ordinary group-stage match[6].
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs MOUZ (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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