Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 88% |
| Map 2 Winner | 87% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs K27 (+3.5) | 78% |
| Match Winner | 65% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs K27 (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-6.5) vs K27 (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-9.5) vs K27 (+9.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) | 11% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs K27 (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs K27 (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-9.5) vs K27 (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-6.5) vs K27 (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
Market context
Aurora Gaming’s best-of-three against K27 in StarLadder StarSeries Group A opens with a market that prices Aurora as a clear outsider at 7% despite the team usually carrying the deeper international pedigree. That gap is easier to read against recent form: Aurora have won three of their last five on Strafe, while K27 have taken four of five, and one preview notes Aurora’s high-level wins over G2, 9z and BetBoom in June alongside an IEM Cologne semi-final run, with K27 showing a 67% win rate over the last month and a strong Mirage record[3][2]. Strafe’s own voting is also sharply split, with users backing K27 66.7% to 33.3%, which is a useful reminder that the crowd can lean with current momentum rather than longer-run reputation[1].
For traders, the main catalysts are not abstract form lines but line-up and veto details. Aurora’s reported five of XANTARES, woxic, Jimpphat, kyxsan and Wicadia suggests a stable core, while K27’s listed roster of X5G7V, xeedo, kashl1d, relaxxie and qw1nk1 has been consistent enough to support recent results[4]. The market will likely move on any late roster note, map veto information, or signs that Aurora can avoid weak maps such as Nuke, which one preview flags as a liability at 39% over 18 maps[2]. A K27 win would fit the pattern of a form-driven upset; an Aurora win would be more in line with squad quality and higher-end experience than the current crowd price suggests[5].
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs K27 (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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