Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: JiJieHao (-3.5) vs GenOne (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-3.5) vs JiJieHao (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-3.5) vs JiJieHao (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: JJH (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: G1 (-1.5) vs JiJieHao (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-3.5) vs JiJieHao (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-9.5) vs JiJieHao (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: GenOne (-6.5) vs JiJieHao (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: JiJieHao (-6.5) vs GenOne (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
GenOne’s quarter-final against JiJieHao is a best-of-three in the Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 playoffs, and the market’s 0% YES price is hard to reconcile with the teams’ recent form. GenOne came in with a stabilised five-man roster after adding Keoz and bL4SEZ in late July, and the team had won four of its last five matches, with recent clean wins over Enjoy, ex-RUSTEC and Honvéd Esport noted in match listings and previews.[3][6][2]
The historical frame is that these sides have met only once before, when JiJieHao beat GenOne 2-1 in November 2025, so there is not much direct head-to-head evidence to lean on.[2] That makes current form and map pool more important than reputation alone: GenOne’s recent preview data points to strong Dust2 and Nuke numbers, while JiJieHao arrived with a more uneven run, including defeats to Black Phoenix, Phantom and Atreides alongside wins over Entropy and BASEMENT BOYS.[1][2] Strafe also listed GenOne lower in its rankings but only marginally behind JiJieHao, which is more consistent with a live underdog than with a no-chance price.[2]
For traders, the main catalysts are roster confirmation, veto dynamics and whether the bracket runs on schedule. GenOne’s recent integration of Keoz and bL4SEZ is still a relevant variable, while JiJieHao’s lineup stability around Bibu, m1N1 and 0SAMAS matters if the map pool forces comfort picks.[3][15] The match was listed for 1 August and multiple live pages indicate it did start, so any resolution risk now depends on completion, protest, technical issues or an official delay beyond the settlement window rather than on pre-match scheduling uncertainty.[4][5]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: GenOne vs JiJieHao (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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