Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-3.5) vs 9INE (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-3.5) vs 9INE (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-6.5) vs 9INE (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-6.5) vs 9INE (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs 9INE (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Heroic (-3.5) vs 9INE (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
Heroic’s winners’ match with 9INE in Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 7 sat in a familiar pattern: Heroic came in with the stronger recent results and the more established top-end pedigree, while 9INE’s case rested on whether a narrower map pool and a good run on their comfort picks could offset the gap. BO3’s pre-match data pointed to Heroic at 70% win rate over the past month, but only 49% across the past year, which is a useful reminder that their form has been better recently than over the full season.[1][2] Strafe also listed Heroic’s last five as 3-2 and 9INE’s as 3-2, while rating Heroic much higher in the rankings, so the market’s 0% implied YES looks far more extreme than the recent form alone would justify.[11]
For traders, the key live catalysts are straightforward: official line-up confirmation, map vetoes, and whether the match actually runs on schedule. BO3’s preview noted Heroic’s strong Nuke priority and an almost automatic Anubis ban, while 9INE have shown strength on Ancient, which means the veto can matter more than overall ranking gap in a best-of-three.[1][2] The match was scheduled for 13:00 UTC on 7 August, so any delays, rescheduling, or server issues would be the main path to a non-standard settlement rather than a routine result.[8][11] There is no indication in the available sources of a major recent coaching change or key absence for either side, so the most relevant information remains current roster availability, veto order, and whether either team starts slowly enough to open the door for a map swing.[1][7]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Heroic vs 9INE (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 7. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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