Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Nemesis (-3.5) vs Infinite (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Nemesis (-3.5) vs Infinite (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Nemesis (-6.5) vs Infinite (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Nemesis (-9.5) vs Infinite (+9.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Nemesis (-3.5) vs Infinite (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Nemesis (-9.5) vs Infinite (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Nemesis (-9.5) vs Infinite (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Infinite (-3.5) vs Team Nemesis (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: INF (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Nemesis (-6.5) vs Infinite (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
Infinite and Team Nemesis meet in a best-of-three StarLadder StarSeries Group A match, with the market already pricing in a heavy Nemesis edge at 0% YES. The historical case for that stance is straightforward: the sides have played twice in recent history, and Team Nemesis has won both meetings, including a 2-0 on 16 June, which gives traders a clean head-to-head reference rather than a speculative one.[1][2][9]
The current read also leans on comparative form and standing. Recent match pages and rankings show Nemesis ahead of Infinite, with Strafe listing Nemesis at #24 versus Infinite at #88 and both teams carrying mixed short-term results rather than dominant streaks.[3][9] That matters in a BO3, where veto leverage can amplify a ranking gap if one side has a stable map pool and the other is still searching for consistency; recent match notes also point to Nemesis having stronger map-specific numbers and a repeatable edge in the matchup.[5]
For traders, the main catalysts are late roster confirmation, schedule changes, and any official word on whether the series starts on time or is moved within the tournament window. The match listings identify the rosters currently registered, but any substitute or coaching-side change could matter in a series where previous meetings already favoured Nemesis.[3][6] If the fixture is delayed, abandoned, or not completed as scheduled, the market rules allow for non-standard settlement outcomes, so checking organiser updates and live match status is more important than usual here.[10]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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