Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: NV (-1.5) vs Benched gods (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Benched gods (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 10% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BG (-1.5) vs NEW VISION (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Benched gods (-3.5) vs NEW VISION (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
NEW VISION’s BO3 against Benched gods is the kind of lower-tier Europe qualifier match where recent head-to-heads can matter more than broad ranking labels. The teams met on 8 May, when NEW VISION beat Benched gods 2-0, and that is the only recent head-to-head recorded in the search results.[4][2] Even so, the broader form picture is mixed: one tracker lists NEW VISION as having won none of their last five, while Benched gods have won three of five, which helps explain why the pre-match market has not been one-sided in the broader betting ecosystem.[3]
For traders, the main catalysts are whether both line-ups actually start as listed and whether the scheduled qualifier slot holds. The match page says it had not started yet, with NEW VISION expected to field Fen2k, hahanz0 and w0l33n, while Benched gods were listed with f1chper and MisterHyesos.[2] If either side is forced into a last-minute substitute or the fixture slips beyond the resolution window, settlement risk rises quickly because this market goes 50-50 for cancellation, a tie, or an extended delay. With the current crowd-implied probability sitting at 100% YES, the market is effectively assuming the game is played and that NEW VISION’s earlier 2-0 result remains the most relevant recent comparables.[1][4]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Benched gods (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #6 Group C. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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