Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 39.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 45.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs Black Phoenix (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% |
| Map 2 Winner | 50% |
| Match Winner | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% |
| Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Black Phoenix (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs Black Phoenix (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-6.5) vs Black Phoenix (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-9.5) vs Black Phoenix (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: Black Phoenix (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-3.5) vs Walczaki (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 51.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-6.5) vs Black Phoenix (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs Black Phoenix (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-3.5) vs Walczaki (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Black Phoenix (-9.5) vs Walczaki (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
Walczaki’s quarter-final against ex-RUSTEC is a rematch that already carries a clear recent pattern: ex-RUSTEC swept the teams’ last meeting 2-0 in CCT Europe Series #5 on 30 July, and other match listings also show ex-RUSTEC winning the pair’s recent best-of-three clashes, leaving Walczaki 0-2 in the head-to-head. Walczaki’s wider results have been less stable too, with one preview noting a recent month-long win rate drop to 40% despite a stronger season figure, while ex-RUSTEC’s recent form has been described as steadier at roughly 64% over the last month and half-year.[7][14][18][4]
That is why a 50% crowd-implied price sits in the middle rather than leaning hard either way. The main comparable frame is not overall ranking, but whether Walczaki can interrupt ex-RUSTEC’s map-level edge and reverse the recent psychological pressure from two 0-2 defeats this month, especially after Walczaki’s July 26 roster change replacing sk1tt with reiko, which may still be settling in. For traders, the key catalysts are simple: final start confirmation, any late roster or stand-in announcement, and whether the BO3 actually begins on schedule, because the market resolves to 50-50 if the match is cancelled, tied, or pushed beyond the settlement window without a winner.[8][1][2]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs ex-RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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