Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: NH (-1.5) vs RE.Arise (+1.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Game Handicap: RE.Arise (-1.5) vs No Hoodwink (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
RE.Arise and No Hoodwink meet in a best-of-three group match, and the market’s 0% YES pricing sits against a broader form edge for RE.Arise rather than any confirmed match-up history. RE.Arise have been more active over the past month and arrive with a stronger six-month win rate, while No Hoodwink’s recent route has included a qualifying run but also a longer break from official play, which can matter in early-map execution and drafting sharpness.[2][4]
That said, the live probability should still be read through match-day logistics. Several listings show the fixture at 12:00 UTC, and some third-party pages have already marked it as postponed or cancelled, so the key catalyst is whether the series actually begins and is completed before any delay window becomes relevant.[1][7][8] If a late schedule change, roster update, or organiser announcement appears, it would be more important than pre-match sentiment, because this market resolves 50-50 if the match is not played, ends level, or drifts beyond the settlement conditions without a winner.[3]
Recent results also frame how traders should interpret the current setup: RE.Arise have logged wins over PuckChamp and Nemiga in July, but also back-to-back losses later in the month, suggesting respectable baseline strength with some short-term volatility.[2][10][11] No Hoodwink’s public profile is thinner, with limited recent match history and no clear head-to-head record against RE.Arise, so any sharp move would likely come from line-up confirmation or an in-play change rather than a deep history between the sides.[2][4][7]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Dota 2: RE.Arise vs No Hoodwink (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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