Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 91% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 91% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 91% |
| Ends in Daytime | 91% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: PckCp (-1.5) vs Spirit Academy (+1.5) | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Game Handicap: TS.A (-1.5) vs PuckChamp (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Spirit Academy and PuckChamp are meeting in a best-of-three group-stage match, and the market’s 100% yes price implies a near-certainty that one side will be returned as the winner rather than the contest being voided or dragged beyond the settlement window. The most recent comparable meeting points towards Spirit Academy’s edge: BO3 and Strafe both record a 2-0 Spirit Academy win over PuckChamp on 5 July, which is the clearest head-to-head datapoint in the current set. [3][4][5]
That said, the longer-form form picture is less one-sided. BO3’s match page says Spirit Academy have had better momentum recently, including a 60% win rate over the last month and multiple playoff wins in July, but also notes weak medium-term consistency, with just 36% over the full period and 35% over the last half-year. The same page gives PuckChamp a higher historical win rate, but also flags a recent slump and a 40% month and half-year win rate, which is the sort of profile that can produce a shorter best-of-three swing if map one goes against the favourite. [3]
For traders, the key catalysts are confirmation that the fixture starts on schedule, whether line-up information changes before draft, and any late schedule compression elsewhere in the group that might affect preparation time. Live match pages from Hawk and DLTV indicate the series is active on 23 July, while the market’s own rules mean a no-show, abandonment, tie, or a delay beyond seven days would force a 50-50 result rather than a team win. [1][2]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs PuckChamp (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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