Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 66% |
| Match Winner | 62% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Game 2 Winner | 34% |
| Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) | 34% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Game Handicap: RE (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Team Resilience and Rune Eaters are playing the Games of the Future third-place match, a best-of-three that has already reached map one, so the 50% crowd price is basically a live coin-flip on a series that was priced as close to even before the start. Live listings show the match underway at 08:00 UTC with the score still 0-0, which means traders are watching an active Bo3 rather than a delayed or cancelled fixture.[1][8]
The cleaner historical frame is that both sides arrived here after tight playoff runs. Team Resilience upset Xtreme Gaming 2-1 in the quarter-finals, while Rune Eaters also advanced through a 2-1 win over LGD Gaming, and both teams were involved in comeback-heavy series earlier in the event.[9][10] Public team pages also put them close together on recent form, with each side taking three of their last five matches, although Team Resilience is rated higher on several ranking snapshots and is slightly favoured by some models and community markets.[11][14]
For traders, the key catalysts are whether the series completes on schedule and whether any official bracket or roster updates emerge during play. The published playoff timetable places the third-place match and grand final on the same day, so any extended delay, technical pause, or unfinished series matters because the market rules revert to 50-50 if the match is not played, ends level, or is delayed beyond seven days without a winner.[10] There is no indication from the current live pages of a cancellation or replacement, but the only decisive information now is the on-server result and whether both teams field their expected line-ups through to the end.[1][5]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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