Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 56% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 55% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 53% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 48% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 46% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 43% |
| Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) | 40% |
| Game 2 Winner | 39% |
| Game 1 Winner | 37% |
| Match Winner | 32% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
Market context
KT Rolster meet Gen.G in an LCK BO3 with the market currently pricing a narrow underdog position for KT at 38% yes. Recent results and the wider head-to-head both point to Gen.G as the more established side: across the last year of meetings, Gen.G have taken three of four series, and broader history is heavily in their favour as well.[18] The most recent posted series between the teams was a Gen.G 3-0 in June 2026 on the Road to MSI, with Gen.G also winning the 2025 regular-season and playoff encounters shown in match archives.[16][14]
That said, KT’s live chance is not negligible because this price is closer than the historical split suggests, and KT have shown enough strength in the 2026 rounds tables to stay in the upper half of the Legend Group picture.[1] For traders, the key catalysts are whether either side confirms a roster change, substitute use, or late injury/availability issue before lock, because those are the main events that can move a BO3 line quickly in esports. The other practical dependency is schedule integrity: the market rules say a cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days without a winner pushes settlement to 50-50, so any official postponement notice or venue/production issue matters as much as form.[5]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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