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LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Sports snapshot for "LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" with league data and platform comparison on a single page.

Match Winner 74% First Blood in Game 1? 72% Game 2 Winner 67% O/U 3.5 Games 67% Volume: $158K Liquidity: $238K Closes: 4 Jul 2026
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LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 74% 26% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 74% 26% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner74%
First Blood in Game 1?72%
Game 2 Winner67%
O/U 3.5 Games67%
Game 1 Winner66%
Game 3 Winner66%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?63%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?63%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon62%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?62%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon61%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon59%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5)57%
Odd/Even Total Kills54%
Odd/Even Total Kills54%
Game 4 Winner51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?50%
Any Player Penta Kill49%
First Blood in Game 4?48%
First Blood in Game 3?48%
First Blood in Game 2?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?48%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon47%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon47%
Odd/Even Total Kills44%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?43%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?42%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?40%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor38%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors38%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor38%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors38%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors37%
Any Player Quadra Kill37%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor37%
Any Player Quadra Kill37%
Any Player Quadra Kill37%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?34%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?33%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?33%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5)31%
O/U 4.5 Games28%
Any Player Penta Kill14%
Any Player Penta Kill14%
Any Player Penta Kill14%

Market context

LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs — current market-implied probability: 74%. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 2 match between LYON and FURIA Esports in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 3 at 11:00PM ET. This market will…

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for LoL: LYON vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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