Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 90% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 90% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% |
| Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Skillcamp Esport (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Solary and Skillcamp Esport will contest a lower bracket quarterfinal in the 2026 League of Legends French League playoffs on 20 August, with the winner advancing deeper into the elimination bracket. The match is scheduled for 3:00 PM ET and will be played as a best-of-three series.
The 100% crowd probability reflects Solary's established standing within French competitive League of Legends. Solary has historically been a top-tier organisation in the LFL, regularly qualifying for playoffs and maintaining roster stability across seasons. Skillcamp Esport, by contrast, has operated as a lower-seeded or mid-table competitor in recent LFL cycles. When a significantly higher-ranked team faces a lower-ranked opponent in a single-elimination format, markets typically price the favourite heavily, particularly when recent form data supports the seeding differential. The current odds suggest traders view this as a heavily one-sided matchup rather than a competitive encounter.
Traders should monitor roster announcements or last-minute substitutions from either organisation before the 20 August start time, as coaching staff changes or player absences can shift match dynamics substantially. The settlement window closes at 23:45 UTC on 20 August, allowing approximately nine hours post-match for official results confirmation. Any postponement must occur before 3 September 2026 at 23:59 ET; matches rescheduled beyond that date would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Recent LFL scheduling has generally remained stable, though technical issues or unforeseen circumstances occasionally force delays. Confirmation of both teams' final rosters and any last-minute coaching adjustments will be critical data points in the final hours before match start.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for LoL: Solary vs Skillcamp Esport (BO3) - LFL Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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