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LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

How the sports market is pricing "LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season" right now — live quote plus platform comparison.

Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5) 100% Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? 100% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? 56% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 54% Volume: $793K Liquidity: $1.3M Closes: 7 Sept 2026
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LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?56%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon54%
Odd/Even Total Kills52%
First Blood in Game 2?52%
First Blood in Game 1?52%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1?51%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor49%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon49%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors49%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor48%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors48%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?44%
Game 1 Winner0%
Game 2 Winner0%
Match Winner0%
O/U 2.5 Games0%
Game Handicap: SR (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5)0%

Market context

LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the LoL match between Shopify Rebellion and FlyQuest in the LCS Regular Season, initially scheduled for September 6, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Shopify Reb…

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Chris ReedChris ReedPolitical Forecasting EditorandMaya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets Writer

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