Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-6.5) vs EDward Gaming (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-7.5) vs EDward Gaming (+7.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-8.5) vs EDward Gaming (+8.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-9.5) vs EDward Gaming (+9.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-4.5) vs EDward Gaming (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-5.5) vs EDward Gaming (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 31.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 32.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-3.5) vs EDward Gaming (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-4.5) vs EDward Gaming (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-5.5) vs EDward Gaming (+5.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 53% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs BBL Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-2.5) vs BBL Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BBL (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 36.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-6.5) vs EDward Gaming (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-3.5) vs BBL Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: EDward Gaming (-5.5) vs BBL Esports (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-4.5) vs EDward Gaming (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-3.5) vs EDward Gaming (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BBL Esports (-5.5) vs EDward Gaming (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 34.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 35.5 | 0% |
Market context
EDward Gaming and BBL Esports have already completed their Esports World Cup 2026 Group A match, with BBL securing a decisive 2-0 victory over the Chinese side. The game, initially scheduled for 7:00 AM ET on 2 July, concluded with BBL dominating both maps, rendering any prediction market favouring EDward Gaming’s win effectively void. This outcome aligns with pre-match odds from Kalshi, which assigned BBL a 61% chance of winning, while EDward Gaming held minimal implied probability[3].
Historically, when a match finishes before a prediction market’s settlement window closes, the market resolves immediately to the actual winner, nullifying any lingering “YES” bets. Comparable cases in recent Valorant tournaments show that markets with 0% implied probability for the losing team post-match are routinely closed without payout, as the result is already verified[1][3]. Traders should note that no further action is required; the event is settled, and the market will resolve to BBL Esports.
Key catalysts for traders now include official confirmation from the Esports World Cup and VLR.gg’s match report, which confirms the 2-0 scoreline and finalised result[1]. No schedule changes, coaching shifts, or player absences apply, as the match is complete. With the settlement window ending 2026-07-02T17:30:00Z, the market will resolve definitively to BBL Esports, and all EDward Gaming “YES” positions are worthless[3].
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Valorant: EDward Gaming vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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