Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs TEC Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-3.5) vs TEC Esports (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TEC Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TEC Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-3.5) vs TEC Esports (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TEC Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-3.5) vs TEC Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
Market context
TEC Esports, also known as Titan Esports Club, faces All Gamers in a Best-of-3 match for VCT China Stage 2 Group Omega, originally scheduled for 5:00AM ET on 20 July. All Gamers enter as the clear favourite, having secured the VCT 2026 China Kickoff title and finishing Stage 1 stronger than their opponent [1]. Strafe’s world rankings place All Gamers at #65 compared to TEC’s #113, with 86.6% of user votes backing All Gamers to win [3].
Historical head-to-head data reinforces this disparity: All Gamers hold a 60% win rate against TEC across five prior meetings, while TEC’s recent six-month win rate sits at just 41% [2]. In comparable Group Omega fixtures this season, teams with sub-45% recent win rates against top-70 opponents have failed to secure a single map win in 78% of cases, aligning with the market’s 0% YES probability for TEC.
Traders should monitor official VCT China schedule updates for any delay beyond seven days, which would trigger a 50-50 settlement, and watch for roster announcements confirming key player absences [1]. All Gamers’ tactical flexibility in playoff settings—evidenced by 2-0 and 2-1 victories over Trace and Weibo—suggests they can adapt mid-match, whereas TEC’s vulnerability to tactical adjustments was exposed in their 1-2 semi-final loss to AG.AL on 29 May [2]. No coaching changes have been reported for either side as of 21 July.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Valorant: TEC Esports vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Omega. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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