Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-4.5) vs FUT Esports (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-5.5) vs FUT Esports (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-6.5) vs FUT Esports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-8.5) vs FUT Esports (+8.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-7.5) vs FUT Esports (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-5.5) vs FUT Esports (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-6.5) vs FUT Esports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Liquid (-4.5) vs FUT Esports (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs Team Liquid (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-4.5) vs Team Liquid (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-5.5) vs Team Liquid (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
Market context
Team Liquid face FUT Esports in the VCT EMEA upper bracket quarterfinal on 20 August 2026, a best-of-three encounter that will determine progression toward the regional playoffs final. The match sits at 11:00 AM ET, with settlement contingent on completion by 21 August 2026 at midnight.
The 0% implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in Team Liquid's superiority or sparse trading volume in this particular market. Historically, Liquid have maintained a stronger competitive record within EMEA Valorant, though FUT Esports' recent roster adjustments and coaching staff changes have narrowed the gap between regional contenders. Previous upper bracket matchups between established organisations and rising challengers have frequently resolved closer than pre-match sentiment suggested, particularly when the underdog enters with fresh tactical preparation or personnel changes that disrupt scouting reports.
Traders should monitor official VCT EMEA announcements regarding any roster confirmations or last-minute coaching adjustments through 19 August. FUT Esports' recent team composition and scrim performance data, typically reported by regional beat reporters covering the EMEA circuit, will signal whether they've addressed prior weaknesses. Liquid's own form heading into playoffs—particularly their map pool consistency and individual player performances in qualifying matches—remains the primary catalyst. Any postponement triggers the rescheduling window through 3 September at 23:59 ET; cancellation or a tied result would resolve the market to 50-50, though such outcomes remain uncommon in structured VCT fixtures.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Valorant: Team Liquid vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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