Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
52% | 48% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
52% | 48% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ↓ 1,800 | 52% |
| ↑ 2,000 | 16% |
| ↓ 1,700 | 12% |
| ↑ 2,100 | 5% |
| ↓ 1,600 | 4% |
| ↑ 2,200 | 2% |
| ↓ 1,500 | 2% |
| ↑ 2,500 | 1% |
| ↑ 2,400 | 1% |
| ↑ 2,300 | 1% |
| ↓ 1,400 | 1% |
| ↑ 2,600 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,300 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,200 | 0% |
Market context
Ethereum is trading far below its August 2025 peak, and that matters for how to read any market on whether it can print a higher price during 3–9 August 2026. Recent live data put ETH around $1,740-$1,790, while one year ago it was closer to $3,100 and at its all-time high it reached roughly $4,954, so the current baseline is a deep drawdown rather than a trend already pressing into record territory.[1][7][11] That makes a “0% YES” crowd view consistent with a market that is asking for a meaningful break above the recent range rather than a routine daily fluctuation.[1][6][11]
Comparable readings from the last week show ETH repeatedly trading in a relatively tight band, with CoinGecko logging a 7-day range of $1,653.52-$1,827.49 and a 24-hour range of $1,713.58-$1,757.93, while Twelve Data’s July prints show closes mostly around $1.64K-$1.79K.[6][11] Against that backdrop, trader attention should focus on whether spot ETF flows, stablecoin liquidity and broader risk appetite improve enough to push ETH through the upper end of that band; CryptoRank noted a third straight week of spot ETH ETF inflows and argued that trendline resistance and weaker Binance stablecoin netflows were still acting as headwinds.[13] In practical terms, the key catalyst is less a single Ethereum-native event than whether fresh inflows or a macro risk rally arrive during the settlement window.[13][18]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for What price will Ethereum hit August 3-9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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