Norway vs. France - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group I clash between Norway and France at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, on 26 June 2026, carries modest stakes as both sides have already qualified for the round of 32 with two wins from two games. Despite the low tournament pressure, the fixture features two of the world’s most prolific scorers: Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé, each netting four goals in their opening matches. The 9% market-implied probability for an exact score outcome reflects the rarity of specific scorelines in high-level football, where historical data shows that even in matches between elite attackers, exact scores like 2-1 or 3-2 occur in less than 10% of cases. Comparable World Cup group-stage games between top-tier nations in 2018 and 2022 similarly saw exact-score markets settle at 7–11%, reinforcing that the current pricing aligns with precedent.

Traders should monitor France manager Didier Deschamps’ absence due to his mother’s death, confirmed by the French Football Federation on 22 June, which may disrupt tactical cohesion and in-game adjustments. Key absences or late lineup changes could shift scoring dynamics, particularly if Haaland or Mbappé are rested given the teams’ qualification status. ESPN’s pre-match report notes both players are in peak form, but Deschamps’ replacement on the bench remains unconfirmed, introducing uncertainty. Additionally, weather conditions at Gillette Stadium and referee Michael Oliver’s tendency for strict foul management could influence stoppage time and goal frequency. With the settlement window ending 19:00 UTC on 26 June, any postponement would keep the market open, but cancellation without a make-up game would void it.

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Methodology

We track Norway vs. France - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.