Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

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Market context

The FIFA World Cup group-stage match between Türkiye and the United States kicks off in Los Angeles on 25 June 2026, with the market betting on an exact final score of 2–1 to the US. Historical precedents for exact-score markets in World Cup group games show that when one side is already eliminated and the other seeks a third consecutive win, scores like 2–1 frequently resolve the outcome, especially when the leading team has scored two-plus goals in seven of their last nine internationals[1]. In the four prior meetings between these nations, the US won two, lost one, and drew one, with the last two matches ending in US victories, suggesting a pattern of narrow but decisive American wins[3].

Traders should monitor pre-match announcements regarding Christian Pulisic’s calf injury, as his absence could significantly alter the US attacking output, while also watching for Vincenzo Montella’s likely rotation of Türkiye’s XI given their elimination[1]. The US, under Mauricio Pochettino, has shown strong attacking form, scoring 2+ goals in seven of their last nine internationals, and has never won three consecutive World Cup matches before, making this a high-stakes catalyst for a 2–1 result[1]. Additionally, the match’s settlement window ends at 02:00 UTC on 26 June, so any postponement will keep the market open until completion, adding a dependency on weather or logistical delays in Los Angeles[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.