Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
68% | 32% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
68% | 32% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 68% |
| October 31, 2026 | 40% |
| September 30, 2026 | 9% |
| September 15, 2026 | 2% |
| June 30, 2026 | 0% |
| July 31, 2026 | 0% |
Market context
Anthropic has taken the first formal step towards a public listing by confidentially filing its IPO paperwork with the SEC, but it has not set a final date, price range or exchange yet.[9][10] That keeps the market in a procedural phase rather than a completed-transaction phase: the company can still slow, rework or withdraw the offer, and the market will only resolve “Yes” once shares are listed and trading on the chosen exchange by the deadline.
History suggests that a confidential filing is a necessary staging post, not a guarantee of an imminent debut. Reports on the company have pointed to an October 2026 window as an early target, but those same reports also stress that timing remains contingent on SEC review and market conditions.[1][4][8] Comparable late-stage private listings often move only after the public S-1, investor education period and bookbuilding all line up, which means the probability can stay low until those milestones are visible in official filings.[9][10]
The main catalysts to watch are the public S-1, SEC correspondence, roadshow scheduling and any exchange-related listing confirmations, because those are the points at which a date becomes more concrete.[9][10][16] Recent reporting says bankers have already been meeting investors and that a debut could come as soon as October, but it also notes that the timing is still fluid and could slip depending on how the process develops.[1][11][12] An acquisition by a public company would end the market immediately with a “No”, so any strategic sale would be a critical downside trigger.[11][14]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Anthropic IPO by 2027?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade Anthropic IPO by 2027? on March Madness Predictions
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →