What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?

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Market context

WTI crude oil in August 2026 is trading well below the levels implied by the market’s current 1% chance of an upside break, with consensus forecasts for 2026 mostly clustered around the mid-$50s to low-$60s rather than a sustained spike. The EIA’s June Short-Term Energy Outlook says WTI is expected to average about $61.77 in 2026, while BMO and J.P. Morgan have more cautious 2026 views around $60 and $56 respectively; even the Reuters poll in late May put the 2026 average at $84.63, which was already being framed as a relatively bullish outlier compared with the broader Wall Street range.[1][9][5][12]

For traders, the key comparison is between a normal summer trading range and a genuine supply shock. August WTI futures were trading around the high-$50s in recent forecasts and have been described by some market models as staying within roughly the low-$50s to mid-$70s in July 2026, which means a move to a much higher August level would likely require a fresh disruption rather than ordinary seasonal volatility.[15][18] The main catalysts are OPEC+ policy signals, US inventory data, and any changes to Middle East shipping risk: Goldman recently cut its late-2026 WTI outlook to $75 after the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring how sensitive the curve remains to flow assumptions and how quickly pricing can reset when disruption risk eases.[7][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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