WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

WTI crude is trading well below the market’s threshold level, so an **above** close now requires a sharp late-session reversal rather than a routine intraday bounce. Front-month WTI has recently been in the mid-70s to low-80s range depending on the feed and timestamp, with one August 5 snapshot putting the contract at about $74.40 and another reporting $75.23 after a multi-day slide[14][6].

That backdrop helps explain the 0% implied chance: comparable recent readings show WTI has only just bounced after a weak stretch, not built momentum towards the higher strike. On August 4, WTI closed around $74.4 on one futures feed, while other market trackers showed intraday volatility around the mid-70s, leaving the contract several dollars short of higher thresholds used in related prediction markets[14][15][7]. In practical terms, a finish above a level in the high 70s or low 80s would need a strong late-day rally on top of an already volatile session.

Traders should watch for any fresh supply headlines, especially updates on Middle East shipping routes and any change in the easing tone that has recently pressured crude lower. One report on August 5 said crude extended a third straight decline as hopes of a gradual resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reduced supply fears, with WTI quoted at $74.63 at the time[5]. Near-term direction also depends on whether US inventory or export data changes the curve, since settlement is tied to the front-month contract rather than spot chatter[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.