Fed Decision in July?

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Market context

The Federal Open Market Committee will convene on 28 and 29 July 2026 to decide whether to alter the upper bound of the target federal funds rate, currently anchored at 3.75%. With crowd-implied probability sitting at 78% for a rate increase, traders are betting on a shift away from the March 2026 decision that held rates steady amid sticky inflation and mixed labour data[3].

Historically, mid-year hikes in 2026 have been rare, with the FOMC favouring stability until conditions stabilise, as noted in recent investor signals[2]. The dot plot from March suggested one cut in 2026 and another in 2027, yet seven of 19 participants now expect unchanged rates this year, indicating a cautious pivot toward potential hikes if inflation persists[3]. This contrasts with the 76% market expectation for no change at the upcoming meeting, highlighting a divergence between public sentiment and prediction markets[5].

Key catalysts include the July Consumer Price Index release, expected in mid-July, and any updates on tariff disputes or Iran conflict impacts that could sustain inflationary pressures[2]. Traders should monitor the Fed’s dot plot revisions ahead of the meeting and energy price trends, which the U.S. Energy Information Administration warns may not revert to early 2026 levels until 2028[2]. Any surprise in the dot plot or inflation data could swing probabilities sharply, given the ambiguous Fed direction analysts face[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.