Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Israel has not publicly accepted the Board of Peace Gaza roadmap, and the latest reporting points the other way. Reuters said the plan requires Hamas disarmament, an Israeli pullback, and an international force, but also noted that Israel had not confirmed acceptance; JTA later reported Israel rejected the broader Gaza plan because it did not adequately address Hamas disarmament, with officials saying there would be no withdrawal until the strip is demilitarised.[12][1]

That is why the market’s low teens probability is more consistent with a live but constrained negotiation than with a clean near-term endorsement. Comparable Gaza ceasefire and post-war frameworks have usually moved only when both sides’ core sequencing demands were softened, and the current draft still ties Israeli withdrawal to later verification steps on weapons and tunnels, which makes an early Israeli yes harder to deliver.[11][16] The fact that the proposal was presented as phased and contingent also means traders should treat any public language about “agreement” carefully unless Jerusalem expressly says it has accepted the roadmap itself.[7][11]

The main catalysts are an official Israeli statement, any US- or mediator-led clarification after the 30 July rollout, and whether the parties publish a revised version that changes the withdrawal/disarmament sequence.[2][6][11] CNN reported on 3 August that Israel’s response had been silence from government channels, while Al Jazeera said Israel had not publicly agreed and that implementation only begins after formal acceptance by all parties.[3][11] For this market, the key question is not whether talks continue, but whether Israel issues a direct acceptance before the deadline rather than leaving the plan in conditional limbo.[1][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.