Iran charges Hormuz fees by 2026?

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Market context

Iran is actively pursuing a policy to impose mandatory maritime service fees on commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that directly contradicts the recent US-Iran peace deal which stipulated toll-free passage for a 60-day negotiation window[1][2]. While Oman has proposed a voluntary fee model similar to the Straits of Malacca and Singapore, Iranian officials insist the charges must be obligatory, with Tehran threatening to impose its own unilateral fees if no agreement is reached with Oman[1][5]. This historical friction frames the current 2% crowd-implied probability, as the temporary ceasefire agreement explicitly bans charges during its validity, yet Iran has already inserted amendments allowing for future fees once the negotiation period expires[3][4].

Traders must monitor official announcements from Iran’s Strait of Hormuz body regarding the transition from the current fee waiver to a mandatory collection system, particularly as the 60-day window nears its end[2]. Key catalysts include any formal declaration by Iran’s deputy foreign minister confirming the imposition of unilateral fees, which he stated would occur if Oman refuses to compromise[1]. Additionally, watch for shifts in US diplomatic pressure, as President Trump has publicly warned Iran against charging tolls while simultaneously suggesting a joint venture to secure the route[6]. The settlement of this market hinges on whether Iran officially announces and begins collecting these mandatory fees before the settlement deadline in August 2026, a scenario that remains unlikely given the current diplomatic constraints but is technically possible if the peace deal collapses[7][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Iran charges Hormuz fees by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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