Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by 2026?

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Market context

President Trump has publicly declared a ceasefire agreement with Iran, extending the halt of hostilities for 60 days to facilitate negotiations on a permanent settlement, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement, validated by Iranian officials and mediated by Pakistan, establishes a clear commitment that the US is no longer engaged in military operations against Iran, directly contradicting the market’s condition for a "Yes" resolution which requires an official statement that no ceasefire is in effect.

Historically, similar ceasefire extensions in the 2025–2026 Iran war have consistently been prolonged rather than terminated, with Trump previously extending the ceasefire indefinitely in April before agreeing to a 60-day term in June. Comparable cases show that when a formal memorandum of understanding is signed, as occurred on 17 June, the commitment to refrain from hostilities remains active unless explicitly revoked; the current 3% probability reflects the rare scenario of an abrupt, unannounced collapse of a ratified agreement, which has not occurred in prior comparable instances.

Traders should monitor the upcoming formal signing ceremony in Switzerland and any statements from the White House Situation Room regarding the final determination on the deal’s framework, as delays or reversals could signal a breakdown in the ceasefire commitment. Recent reports from BBC and NPR indicate that negotiations remain ongoing with unresolved issues on nuclear enrichment, meaning the 60-day extension is likely to persist unless a specific, public revocation is announced by Trump or the US military before the settlement window ends in June 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

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Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.