Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| July 24 | 100% |
| August 4 | 100% |
| August 19 | 11% |
| August 25 | 10% |
| August 12 | 8% |
| August 13 | 8% |
| August 14 | 8% |
| August 16 | 8% |
| August 26 | 8% |
| August 31 | 8% |
| August 18 | 7% |
| August 20 | 7% |
| August 23 | 7% |
| August 27 | 7% |
| August 28 | 7% |
| August 29 | 7% |
| August 30 | 7% |
| August 15 | 6% |
| August 22 | 6% |
| August 9 | 5% |
| August 10 | 5% |
| August 17 | 5% |
| August 24 | 5% |
| August 11 | 4% |
| August 21 | 4% |
| August 5 | 1% |
| August 8 | 1% |
| July 25 | 0% |
| July 26 | 0% |
| July 27 | 0% |
| July 28 | 0% |
| July 29 | 0% |
| July 30 | 0% |
| July 31 | 0% |
| August 1 | 0% |
| August 2 | 0% |
| August 3 | 0% |
| August 6 | 0% |
| August 7 | 0% |
Market context
The Houthis successfully target shipping on 2026? prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolv…
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Houthis successfully target shipping on 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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