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Houthis successfully target shipping on 2026?

"Houthis successfully target shipping on 2026?" — live sports odds and platform comparison.

July 24 100% August 4 100% August 19 11% August 25 10% Volume: $135K Liquidity: $413K Closes: 31 Aug 2026
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Houthis successfully target shipping on 2026?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via March Madness Predictions) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle See live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain See live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD See live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR See live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) See live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
July 24100%
August 4100%
August 1911%
August 2510%
August 128%
August 138%
August 148%
August 168%
August 268%
August 318%
August 187%
August 207%
August 237%
August 277%
August 287%
August 297%
August 307%
August 156%
August 226%
August 95%
August 105%
August 175%
August 245%
August 114%
August 214%
August 51%
August 81%
July 250%
July 260%
July 270%
July 280%
July 290%
July 300%
July 310%
August 10%
August 20%
August 30%
August 60%
August 70%

Market context

The Houthis successfully target shipping on 2026? prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolv…

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Houthis successfully target shipping on 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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