Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships have virtually stopped passing through the Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran tensions escalate, with traffic down from roughly 100 vessels daily in February to just six per day recently[1]. This near-standstill reflects a broader pattern where strategic chokepoints collapse during active conflict, only reopening briefly during short ceasefires like the two-week pause in April[1]. Historical precedents show that even when peace talks stall, traffic rarely rebounds to pre-war levels without a formal security guarantee, making the current 15% market probability for a June recovery appear cautiously realistic given the absence of a binding deal[2].

Traders must monitor President Trump’s explicit condition that reopening the strait is mandatory for any ceasefire, alongside Iran’s reported mining of the passage and its imposition of tolls on transit[2]. The immediate catalyst is the upcoming US-Iran negotiation round, where progress could trigger a rapid surge in transit calls, though minimal progress has already led to a declared naval blockade[2]. IMF PortWatch data shows the 7-day moving average remains at 13.14, far below the 60-vessel threshold required for a “Yes” resolution, meaning any recovery hinges entirely on a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire announcement[7]. Shipping executives are awaiting a peace deal to restore confidence, but without one, the route remains effectively closed for the bulk of global oil flows[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.