US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

The June accord between Washington and Tehran is already an interim framework, not the final written nuclear settlement this market requires, so the key issue is whether the sides can convert a 60-day negotiating window into a mutually signed instrument by 31 August. Reuters reported that the framework was only a preliminary agreement and that the nuclear file was left for further negotiation, while AP said the deal opened a 60-day timetable for talks on Iran’s nuclear programme and kept the threat of renewed military action in play.[10][15]

That history helps explain the current price. Earlier rounds in Geneva produced “general guiding principles” and “progress”, but Reuters and CNBC both stressed that there were still many details to settle, with technical talks pushed on rather than resolved.[4][6] In comparable cases, early diplomatic understandings often narrow the gap without guaranteeing a final text, especially when enforcement, sanctions relief and enrichment limits remain contested.[1][9] A 0% YES view is consistent with a market that has not seen a final, mutually signed document and is still sitting on an interim MoU.[7][10]

Traders should watch for any formal signing announcement, IAEA inspection access, and whether the sanctions waivers and asset-release measures continue on schedule. Reuters reported discussions about a signing ceremony in Europe, and later coverage said the U.S. had agreed to a 60-day oil sanctions waiver and that inspections, frozen assets and maritime access were all being tied to compliance milestones.[8][5][3] Any slip in those dependencies, or any statement that talks are only being extended rather than finalised, would keep the settlement path pointed away from a qualifying “final deal”.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.