MLB: Stolen Bases Leader

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Market context

The 2026 Major League Baseball regular season is currently underway, with Nasim Nuñez of the Washington Nationals leading the stolen base count at 31, closely followed by Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals at 28[1][6]. This market bets on who will finish as the outright leader by late September, with the crowd assigning only an 8% chance to the current proposition, suggesting traders doubt the incumbent will hold the top spot or that a new contender will surge.

Historically, stolen base leaders often emerge from players with high on-base percentages and low caught-stealing rates, as tie-breakers favour efficiency over volume; for instance, in prior seasons, leaders like Elly De La Cruz have projected to reach 41 steals, far exceeding current totals[5]. The 8% probability implies the market expects a significant gap to close or a rival to overtake Nuñez, given that projections show Chandler Simpson and De La Cruz potentially reaching 41 steals, which would dwarf the current 31[5].

Traders should monitor mid-season roster announcements, particularly for Cincinnati and Tampa Bay, where De La Cruz and Simpson are projected to lead, as well as any coaching changes affecting base-running strategies[5]. Key absences due to injury could shift the leaderboard, and the settlement window ending 28 September 2026 means late-season performance will be decisive; recent beat reports highlight that teams like Miami and Cincinnati are adjusting their speed-focused lineups, which could accelerate stolen base accumulation for their top runners[4][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.