"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the domestic opening weekend gross of the historical war epic *Young Washington*, which began its three-day run on Friday, July 3, 2026, and is projected to conclude on Sunday, July 5. Early Friday figures from 2,700 locations show the film earned an estimated $7.60 million, including previews, with total domestic gross so far sitting at $7.597 million[3][5][7]. Industry tracking initially suggested a wider range of $23 million to $35 million for the full weekend, though current data indicates the film may fall short of those higher estimates while still outperforming major summer competitors like *Supergirl* and *Minions & Monsters*[1][4][6].

Historically, historical epics released over the Fourth of July weekend have shown volatile opening patterns, often swinging between modest starts and breakout successes depending on audience reception and star power. *Young Washington* features a cast including Andy Serkis, Kelsey Grammer, and Ben Kingsley, and has already secured a rare high Popcornmeter score, suggesting strong audience appeal despite its niche genre[1]. Comparable cases such as *Braveheart* and *The Patriot* opened with similar modest Friday numbers but gained momentum through the weekend, though *Young Washington*’s current trajectory suggests it may settle closer to the $18 million projection rather than the $23 million+ upper range[1][4].

Traders should monitor Saturday and Sunday box office updates, which will determine whether the film meets or exceeds the $18 million domestic weekend projection[1]. Key dependencies include final studio estimates versus confirmed figures, which are expected to be released by Monday, July 6, and will resolve the market[1]. Additionally, the performance of *Supergirl*, which has collapsed 76% in its second weekend, may indirectly boost *Young Washington*’s relative standing if it continues to dominate the top three spot[2]. Deadline’s Friday estimates and subsequent weekend updates will be critical for assessing the film’s true opening performance[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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