How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

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Market context

Ships are moving through the Strait of Hormuz again after a months-long blockade, but traffic remains volatile following missile attacks on commercial tankers over the weekend. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps fired at least two missiles at vessels on 7 July, damaging a Saudi-flagged crude tanker and causing a fire on another, yet Kpler data confirmed 108 verified crossings over the preceding weekend, with 43 on 3 July, 34 on 4 July, and 31 on 5 July[3]. This resilience suggests the 82% crowd-implied probability for a specific transit threshold is grounded in a genuine recovery trend, though volumes remain well below pre-conflict levels[5].

Historically, similar post-blockade reopenings in choke points show sharp initial rebounds followed by instability when security threats persist. The current week’s activity mirrors the June 20 surge of 55 merchant ships when US forces supported freedom of navigation, yet the July attacks introduce a new risk of sudden drops if Iran escalates[4]. Traders should watch for UK Maritime Trade Operations advisories and any IRGC statements, as the settlement depends entirely on IMF Portwatch’s finalized transit calls, which exclude unreported vessels[3]. A temporary cease-fire last month enabled this recovery, but the absence of a durable resolution keeps the flow fragile[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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