Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by over 95% since the Iran war began, with daily crossings falling from 75–125 to single digits as oil tanker flows remain near standstill[1][7]. Pre-conflict averages of 150 daily transits have not been matched since early March 2026, and most detected vessels are Iran-linked or high-risk ships using spoofed signals to evade targeting[1]. Historical data shows that even limited controlled routes, now approved by Iran for GCC and European ships, charge fees around $2 million per vessel, further suppressing volume[1]. The current 15% YES probability reflects this entrenched disruption, as no finalized IMF Portwatch data has yet reached the threshold for a “Yes” resolution.

Traders should monitor Iran’s official announcements on route expansions and fee adjustments, alongside weekly IMF Portwatch revisions that may reveal hidden transits obscured by GPS jamming or AIS spoofing[1][6]. Recent updates through March 5th show no recovery in commercial traffic, but any shift in Iran’s stance on foreign shipping could alter the settlement outlook[10]. Key dependencies include the resolution of regional conflict and the restoration of reliable satellite data, which IMF PortWatch uses for real-time monitoring[4]. Without these catalysts, the probability of a threshold breach by June 30, 2026, remains low, aligning with the crowd-implied 15% YES.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.