Colorado Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Democratic primary for Colorado’s governor is set for June 30, 2026, with Michael Bennet and Phil Weiser as the leading contenders. Incumbent Jared Polis cannot run again, creating an open seat that has drawn significant attention from both national and state Democrats. The market currently assigns a 68% probability to Bennet winning the primary, reflecting his established political profile and broader fundraising network compared to Weiser’s more grassroots campaign.

Historically, Colorado Democratic primaries for open gubernatorial seats have favoured candidates with prior statewide experience or federal office backgrounds. Bennet, a former U.S. Senator, fits this pattern, similar to how Bill Ritter won in 2006 after serving as Attorney General. In contrast, Weiser, though the current Attorney General, lacks the same depth of statewide electoral history, which may explain the market’s lean toward Bennet despite Weiser’s strong local standing.

Traders should monitor official candidate announcements from the Colorado Democratic Party, any shifts in polling data, and potential run-off scenarios if no candidate secures a majority. Recent reporting from CPR.org notes that both candidates are intensifying their outreach in the final weeks before the primary, with Bennet focusing on urban centres and Weiser targeting rural and suburban voters [3]. Any surprise withdrawals or third-party entries could alter the probability significantly before the settlement window closes on June 30.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.