Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The first phase has already been implemented, but the second phase remains a much harder political lift because it requires fresh agreement on withdrawals, Hamas disarmament, and Gaza’s future administration. That makes the current 66% implied probability broadly consistent with a market that is pricing in continued diplomacy rather than immediate collapse, but not full confidence in delivery.

The clearest historical frame is the earlier three-phase Gaza ceasefire structure, where phase one was easier to execute than the later terms and phase-two talks failed to begin on time. BBC and Britannica both note that the earlier framework stalled once the first phase ended, with disputes over hostage sequencing, Israeli withdrawal, and the durability of any permanent ceasefire.[3][6] In the current plan, CFR says the second phase only recently came into focus after Israel confirmed Hamas had returned the remains of the last hostage needed to satisfy phase-one terms, while the outline for phase two still hinges on a stabilisation force and a transitional government.[1]

For traders, the key catalysts are official announcements from Israel, Hamas, the US, Egypt, or Qatar, plus any sign that the framework is moving from exploratory contacts to a publicly announced mutual agreement. Reuters-level reporting has repeatedly shown that progress tends to come through mediator choreography rather than a single breakthrough, so calendar risk matters: scheduled talks, cabinet meetings, hostage or prisoner exchanges, and any statement on a Gaza technocratic authority or demilitarisation step are the most relevant dependencies. AFP-style reporting in January also showed how quickly “phase two” language can be used before substantive terms are locked in, so the market may react more to formal wording than to broad diplomatic optimism.[1][4][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.