Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still being read as a gradual reopening story rather than a clean snap-back to pre-crisis levels. In June, Reuters reported that traffic remained far below normal despite a ceasefire, with only seven ships in 24 hours versus about 140 normally, while later reporting noted movement was improving but still short of pre-war throughput. [16][17]

That backdrop matters because the market has already swung with each sign of de-escalation. CNBC reported in June that Kalshi traders saw a 66% chance traffic would *not* return to normal before January, while subsequent coverage in July showed those odds moving lower as confidence in a year-end recovery weakened. [18][9] The current 56% Yes price sits in the middle of that range, suggesting traders expect improvement but not a smooth return.

The main catalysts are diplomatic and operational: any extension or breakdown in U.S.-Iran talks, changes to shipping guarantees, naval posture, mine-clearing progress, and whether carriers are willing to resume standard routing. A June New York Times report said the reopening agreement still faced “technical and military challenges”, including clearing mines, which implies that headline peace terms may not translate quickly into the IMF PortWatch 7-day average needed for settlement. [17] Traders will also watch whether PortWatch prints get back to the 60-transit threshold and stay there, since the contract resolves on a published moving average, not a one-day spike. [1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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