Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are barely moving through the Strait of Hormuz as the Iran war has forced commercial shipping to a near-standstill, with daily transit calls dropping from roughly 100 in February to just six between March and May[1]. The strait remains officially closed after a brief reopening, leaving near-zero vessels transiting against a normal baseline of 60 per day[2]. This crisis stems from escalating US-Iran tensions following joint strikes on February 28, which prompted Tehran to target US bases and potentially lay mines in the waterway[3].

Historical precedents suggest that such chokepoint closures rarely resolve quickly without a formal peace deal, yet the crowd-implied 51% probability hints at a fragile expectation of imminent normalisation. Previous disruptions in the region typically saw traffic recover only after high-level diplomatic breakthroughs, yet current data shows a 7-day moving average of merely 13.14 as of late June[7]. The gap between this figure and the required 60 threshold remains vast, framing the current probability as speculative rather than grounded in immediate recovery trends.

Traders must monitor President Trump’s stipulation that reopening the strait is a prerequisite for any ceasefire with Tehran, a condition that has stalled progress amid minimal negotiation gains[3]. The primary catalyst is the announcement of a peace deal or a US withdrawal of its naval blockade, which shipping executives are awaiting to restore confidence[1]. Without a clear diplomatic signal or a sudden surge in reported arrivals from IMF PortWatch, the 60-vessel target appears unlikely to be met before the July 15 settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.